Sinner vs Shelton :

Prior to Jannik Sinner’s match against De Minaur, there were questions about his health in this event. After the match, there were questions about whether anyone could even challenge him for the title. Similar to the Badosa Gauff match, people who watched will have a better sense of the quality of it as a data point than people who didn’t. Jannik played incredibly against De Minaur, but despite his tennis prowess, it is a matchup that just makes it impossible for De Minaur to win. Sinner hitting the ball with so many more RPMs just makes De Minaur’s contact suffer, and he made poor contact with his backhand almost the entire match. Add in that his serve seemed to lose some pop from the early rounds, and playing the best returner on tour suddenly became an impossible task. Watching the match, it looked like De Minaur could never win a set against Sinner. So yes, Sinner is amazing to watch and the #1 player on tour, but no, I don’t think the De Minaur match changes his peak.

Sinner will play Shelton this round, who has actually had an easier draw than Sinner despite being a much lower seed. There have been some epic contests and great moments in his run, but my point in mentioning avoiding the really huge names is that Shelton will be fresh for this. He’s put on extra muscle this year, and despite not really wanting to hang in long rallies, Shelton can play 4-5 hours of good tennis. There is good news and bad news. Being able to go the distance is good news, but not having to is the bad news. Shelton is unlikely to win more than one set here. Sinner is 4-1 against him, and if you watched the 2023 Shanghai match that Ben won, you’ll see the reasons why this is a tough matchup. Shelton’s big tool in that match was the wide serve from the duece side, followed by the off-forehand back to the same corner. It doesn’t matter who you are, this combination is really difficult to do anything about. It was also a match that showcased how solid Shelton’s backhand can be. He isn’t hitting clean winners with it, but he has very good body control and adjusts to find shots that aren’t able to be redirected anywhere too dangerous.

While playing his best game in a first matchup where his serve was the most unreadable it would be throughout their rivalry, Jannik still applied a lot of pressure. Since then he’s gotten a good read on it, and Ben hasn’t won a set. The off-forehand was a big factor in the points Shelton scored, but it seemed profitable for Sinner to just camp in the backhand corner a bit. His backhand being so solid negates the usual lefty approach, and Shelton got passed a number of times while making mildly risky charges to the net. The big thing I saw in that game was the court positioning. Shelton can generate a lot of spin and depth from behind the baseline with his forehand on the run, but it’s a long-term losing position. Sinner was regularly dictating, and being further up the court lets you create angles and apply more RPMs without as much risk. The court position was even more evident with how effective Sinner’s dropshots were. When Sinner finally hits a dropshot against Shelton, the point is over. Ben is a great mover, but you just can’t cover two things at once.

I think there’s a consensus that Sinner will win comfortably because of the ADM result, but this won’t be that lopsided. Shelton may have lost the last 9 sets, but there was a tiebreaker in every single one of those matches, and a few 6-4/7-5 occasions as well. Ben Shelton is a player whose game is not maxed out yet, and who will likely continue to make physical and mental strides on tour. He’s already sporting one of the biggest serve/forehands combos we’ve seen in a while, and though his matchup against Sinner is starting to look like Berrettini vs the big 3, him having a two-hander makes progress possible. Shelton should take care of his serve well here, and in the end Sinner’s consistency and superior ballstriking on the backhand wing will mean Shelton can’t win. He has to redline to win sets, and it’s really not something we’ve seen him do for an entire match. Shelton has been really good about beating the guys he’s supposed to so far, but I think there’s a pattern of him playing freely early, then locking in when a set or the match is finally at risk. Sinner’s not a guy you can elevate against, he’s a guy you have to elevate against, and even then he’s still serving well, bringing a more complete game, and he also has a great team behind him. Shelton’s squad are doing great, but if you want to circle a few areas where Sinner looks better than the rest of the tour, it’s in his professionalism, composure, and his decision-making on the court. The kid is great, and it’s a joy to watch him pushed in these moments by other up and coming stars.

Sinner in 4 is my best guess. It is really hard to blank someone with the offense that Shelton can bring, and this isn’t the same type of “you can’t score” matchup as ADM, the issue is more that Sinner’s average level is always above Shelton’s dips. Shelton has lost 4 tiebreakers in a row to Sinner, but getting there and the added adrenaline of a big crowd give him a 50/50 shot at snagging one here. Winning more than that doesn’t really make sense to me, because Sinner’s backhand negates a ton of Shelton’s normal offense, and Shelton being so deep in the court on average points means he can’t really create any short angles, and generally only can turn points around by taking his forehand up the line when it’s available. It’s a great shot, but Sinner defends well.

Djokovic vs Zverev :

The clocks strikes 6:00AM.

“99 Luftballons” by Nena begins playing. It is a custom clock that only plays 99 Luftballons.

Zverev opens his eyes and shuts off the alarm. His coach is in the kitchen making his favorite breakfast, pancakes in the shape of Zverev.

“I love pancakes in the shape of Zverev!” says Zverev. His coach nods.

“I also love Zverev,” adds Zverev quietly.

“What was that?” asks his coach.

“Nothing,” says Zverev, before winking at himself in the hotel mirror.

The other Zverev winks back.

It is time for the Australian Open semifinals.

The clock attempts to strike 6:00AM.

Djokovic, while meditating, becomes the clock, and assures it that time is a construct and it does not need to sound the alarm.

The clock does not listen, and begins playing 99 Luftballons.

“Why did I let Zverev sell me a clock?” wonders Djokovic, as he begins making pancakes in the shape of Goran.

“I love pancakes in the shape of Goran!” declares Goran, while drawing a picture of an octopus for his friend Novak.

Novak flips his pal Goran the first two pancakes.

“This one is not so good, Novak,” says Goran. Djokovic flinches and clutches his elbow. He flips Goran another.

“This is the best pancake I have ever had!” declares Goran, while swinging his legs happily below his chair. Djokovic’s elbow is magically healed, and he continues cooking.

It is time for the Australian Open semifinals.

In what has become one of the best tv shows to watch, Djokovic has heroically overcome another injury to win a match at a major. Every time this happens, it is nearly impossible to figure out how impaired he really is, what exactly the issue is, and how it will affect his chances. Early in the match against Alcaraz, he began flexing his right leg. It would later be explained as a hamstring injury, but it really led to some of the same old discussions. Here’s what makes injury analysis tricky with Novak in this spot.

1- Novak has some of the best health and wellness practices in professional sports. If anyone can be less than 100% and have their body adjust to this, it’s him. He’s not carrying any extra weight, he has excellent flexibility and balance, and these factors place low impact on his joints so depending on the severity of an issue, he can play through it.

2- Novak is so ridiculously good at tennis, but he plays a very balanced game. When you’re physically fit and win on consistency, you tend not to redline your shots. Djokovic has mostly played at a steady level on tour, which he gradually increases in a match until he locks into a level of consistent hitting that most can’t hang with. This is a great formula in the majors, but it seems (similar to the Olympic performance) that Djokovic can go bigger. He did that last round, and it made his injury seem non-existent at times even though it was clearly there.

3- It’s easy to expose an injury against an opponent who gives you time or short balls, but two of Djokovic’s best attributes have always been accuracy and depth of shot. If you look at a lot of his sot selections and patterns in neutral rallies, he rarely opens up any big angles for his opponent, he stays in cross-court patterns, and he keeps the ball low over the net and maintains depth. He plays table tennis, so if you try to force tennis, it’s likely to cause some errors.

4- We don’t know the severity of the injury, but a hamstring is something you can often play through. Any athlete has had days where something just feels tight or off. It makes you hesitant, but sometimes it loosens up, and sometimes it’s just pain but not actually a structural issue. Learner Tien has a hamstring issue this week, and while it cost him the match against Sonego he was able to fight through it, even winning the third set. That brings me to the 5th point.

5- We don’t get the actual info. No camp is going to reveal how impaired their player is while they’re still in the tournament. It just gives opposing players and teams the blueprint for how to win, and it incentivizes opponents to try harder regardless of the scoreline. We only get media-approved info about the issues, and cagey responses from the players in press. We’re left to speculate, and it leads to a lot of peering at people and trying to decide if they’re okay or not. I know I’ve spent a lot of time looking at exhausted tennis players thinking they’re toast, and seeing guys winning matches in that state. I know I’ve spent a lot of time watching Djokovic fight through injuries while winning titles, so the information is just not of great value.

6- This is one people may not like, but it speaks to the “he’s faking” camp. Floating an injury is an easy way to get your opponent to play harder against you, but it can also be a huge distraction. If my opponent thinks something is wrong, it’s going to alter their game, and it’s going to be a distraction. Maybe Nadal can ignore what’s going on on the other side of the net, but he’s going to beat you anyway. In a huge moment where everyone is playing well, gameplanning a crafty strategy and media management do become important, so people get suspicious. When Monfils grabs his ankles and doubles over, we stop believing it, even though he really may be exhausted. The fitness of tennis pros is off the charts, and it’s one of the reasons that competing through a malady is entirely possible, and also confusing.

Djokovic has had so many issues on court and mid-tournament over the years, and at times it doesn’t really affect his overall play or results. Maybe that’s because he’s the greatest of all time, but it definitely will lead to some discussion. He furthers that discussion because of how reactive he is, and I think that’s where the confusion comes in. Djokovic clearly didn’t run for some balls against Alcaraz in the quarterfinals, but then he played some of the best tennis he has in quite some time. In that famous US Open match against Fritz with the abdominal tear, he visibly couldn’t move or hit the ball for an entire set, then played fine after a brief break. These results don’t always make sense given his demonstrative reactions to the issues, which is where I sometimes get lost.

You can flood my inbox and call me a hater, but Djokovic is the GOAT who cried wolf partly by accident. His reactions to things are not subtle, and that’s what I really think leads to the confusion about how he can continue with an injury. There was a slow motion replay early in the match where he hit a forehand down the line. He posed after the shot. He waited and watched. When the ball landed out, he suddenly flinched and crumpled over his knee. This is not new. When Djokovic lands a shot, he doesn’t reach for the injuries he’s carrying. When he misses one, he reacts dramatically. Yes, the issue might cause him to miss, but the results-oriented reactions lend themselves to thinking he’s overselling it. If you look at his overall behavior, it’s consistent though. When Djokovic serves into the net, you see him crumple his entire body suddenly, but this never happens when the serves land close to the target. When something minor happens on the court like him not getting to a dropshot early in the first on serve, he yells at his box. Djokovic spends a lot of time meditating and being professional because he is a very reactive person. He knows himself, so he works on it. As an observer, the issues seem very connected to results, but I think Novak Djokovic is so dedicated to winning and tennis that it’s nearly impossible for him to be a robot out there.

There’s an old adage that says “Love your neighbor, but tie your camel.” Djokovic may not be 100%, but I don’t think his opponents should look for him to disappear nor should they deviate from their normal approach. Zverev’s game is huge and his play from the baseline is solid. He’ll have seen Alcaraz struggle a tiny bit with trying to figure out how best to approach the match against Djokovic, and his team will have told him (if he listens) to proceed as if his opponent is 100%. Well, maybe not 100%, because if Djokovic is 100% he beats Zverev. He’s better at tennis, he makes much better decisions, he’s more efficient, and his forehand is a lot more reliable. You can focus more on one side of the court to wear on a potential injury, but this match is likely to be played at a pace where the right shot is to the open court rather than to a specific side. If Djokovic swings for the fences the way he did against Alcaraz, you don’t really have a lot of choice on how to proceed anyway.

After all the chatter about severity of the injury, I do have to report that Djokovic skipped his scheduled practice session today. Maybe he hit off-site for some privacy, but it still raises some questions. This is shaping up to be a monumental semifinals, so hopefully Djokovic can play. Zverev has had a good run here. Beating Alcaraz is a better win than Zverev on paper, but they have a wildly different skillset. Zverev is probably the best server left in the tournament (which is saying a lot with the other 3 left in the draw), and he’s in the conversation for the best backhand which is lofty praise considering how good Djokovic and Sinner’s secondary wings are. Zverev gassed out last year against Medvedev, but he had never played better. He was way more offensive than usual this opening week, and when his level has been high he’s been able to hit clean winners off both wings. That’s a new development since he’s had forehand issues, but it’s not entirely fake because when he first arrived on tour his forehand was a really solid weapon. Sasha has added muscle and endurance every single season, and Jez Green is back on his team (the guy who had been planning much of his fitness/development journey in his early career).

This has been a tournament more full of injuries than most, and it makes analysis tough. Djokovic was able to break down Alcaraz’s defenses, but due to the lack of a huge serve Alcaraz is playing more baseline rallies with Djokovic, and trying to do more in them than Zverev is. Zverev tends to be comfortable in cross-court exchanges on his backhand, so the keys for Djokovic to win are really to isolate Zverev’s forehand, and make it clear he’s doing so. When you make it obvious they have to beat you with one wing, players start to forget that you can make errors. They start to force shots, and deceleration can become an issue as they try to “not miss”. It sounds silly to say this happens to pros, but it happens to everyone. Zverev is somewhat lucky to be here, as Tommy Paul was up breaks in every set against him, so it’s hard for me to say he beats a healthy Novak. Zverev has had success against him in the past, but the wins were mostly indoors where his serve gets a big boost. I’m expecting this to be to be really close, and the skipped practice today makes me think Djokovic’s movement will be slightly hindered against. Can he hit through a guy who’s playing a little deeper on the baseline and whose backhand is a lot more solid?

Stupid dual prediction time. If Djokovic is healthy, he’s just better. He’ll do better with the opportunities than Tommy Paul did, and he’s a significant step up from anyone that Zverev has played thus far. There’s no way he shuts him out, but I think he can win in 4 if he locks into his usual consistent level. If the practice cancellation was reflective of him still being injured, I think he might scratch from this match eventually. Painkillers and adrenaline can do a lot, but Zverev is likely to be at least a 4 hour contest, and his serve and backhand are a big factor in allowing him to face less pressure to produce offense than Alcaraz. If I was forced to make an actual guess, I’d actually side with Zverev in 5. He’s been getting better for the last few seasons and this is the best he’s ever played. He matches up well enough to drag this into deep water, and I believe Djokovic that he was considering withdrawing if he had gone down 2-0 against Alcaraz.